6 hurricanes and 12 named storms predicted for the remainder of 2019 Hurricane season
Published 6:41 AM EDT Aug 7, 2019
Researchers estimated we will see six hurricanes in the remaining months of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, and two of those are expected to be major.
A group of atmospheric scientists — considered the nation’s leading hurricane forecasters — are classifying this season as “near-normal.”
It’s a bump up from their April projections of a “slightly below-normal” season because of Hurricane Barry, which made landfall in Louisiana in July.
The predictions appear in the Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Science’s “Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2019.”
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Developed by atmospheric scientist Philip Klotzbach, the report will be published biweekly starting this month. Hurricane activity is greatest August through October.
Colorado State University’s 2019 hurricane season forecast issued August 5, 2019.
The forecast also predicts 12 named storms for the remainder of the season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
As for where the storms will strike, scientists said there is a 31% likelihood of a hurricane hitting Florida and the U.S. East Coast. The Gulf Coast faces the same odds.
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The report predicts a 53% chance a major category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane will make landfall anywhere along the entire U.S. Coastline.
Data from 1979-2011 was used to make the predictions.
The scientists said average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and “anomalously” warm temperatures in the central tropical Pacific contribute to the “near-normal” designation.
Researchers found “the eastern tropical Atlantic is cooler than normal, while the central tropical Atlantic is slightly warmer than normal.”
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The report said a strong vertical wind shear across the Caribbean decreased the likelihood of stronger storm formations.
Ultimately, it said physical conditions prevented a clear outlook, and said conditions in the “tropical Atlantic and Caribbean present mixed signals for the remainder of the season.”